Well, actually, I don’t know.
But it’s not going to be Paul Ryan, and it’s (debatably) highly unlikely to be Nancy Pelosi. What’s interesting here are the two very different approaches.
Ryan, by exiting now, eliminates himself as a target for ads. Not that anyone needs to run against Ryan — everyone is either running against or for Trump.
Ryan has been criticized for dropping out by reducing his ability to act as a fund-raiser. Also, he has no ability to grant or call in favors — he’s done, out, old business.
Pelosi, on the other hand, can (and will) feature prominently in attack ads this season. Does this counterbalance with her ability to raise funds, manage favors, etc?
It’s a fascinating experiment in political strategy. Depending on how things turn out over the next twelve months, it could prove to be precedent setting for future majority and minority leaders — drop out early and clear the decks, or wait until after the election.
What I do know, is that if I was running a party, having a unified front during an election and getting the new Speaker sorted out early in 2019 sounds a lot better.
However…
Nobody is going to ask Ryan for his thoughts on, well, anything in this election cycle. Tax cuts, health care, whatever — nobody cares. Given that the daily question for Ryan would probably be “what do you think about what Trump tweeted this morning?” … well, skipping that ritual is probably better for just about everyone.
